Reform Model Two of the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security: Distributional Outcomes Under Different Economic and Behavioral Assumptions

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This project explores distributional consequences of Plan 2 of the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security using dynamic microsimulation. This plan includes: voluntary personal account “carve outs,” minimum benefits, widow(er)s benefit increases, and initial benefit formula shifts (from wage- to price-indexing). The analysis develops a baseline using Office of the Chief Actuary assumptions regarding portfolio allocation, rates of return, administrative costs, and annuitization. We compare results with promised benefits and currentlaw adjusted to match costs of the baseline without accounts. We test the estimates’ sensitivity to assumptions using historical data, values from the literature, and models estimated from SCF data.