How Might COVID Affect Future Employment, Earnings, and OASI Claiming by Race/Ethnicity?

Gary V. Engelhardt, Syracuse University

This project examines how COVID has affected the health of mid- and late-career workers, as well as their employment, earnings, and OASI claiming since the onset of COVID, and how that might impact employment, earnings, and claiming in the future. COVID may have affected health through two main channels. The first is direct: infection may have led to an array of post-acute and chronic conditions that limit the ability to work, so-called long COVID. The second is indirect: the pandemic led to disruptions in the supply of healthcare that may have delayed or prevented required care. Indeed, recent evidence suggests that these supply disruptions have led to increased mortality. Given the importance of health in decisions to work, earn, and claim OASI benefits, COVID may have long-term effects on these choices.