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What Factors Explain the Decline in DI Awards from 2010 to 2020?

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Laura D. Quinby and Siyan Liu, Boston College

Since 2015, the DI rolls have steadily declined due to a steep drop in the incidence rate. While the forces behind this drop are still unclear, potential reasons include: 1) the labor market expansion that followed the Great Recession; 2) an industry shift from manual labor toward services; 3) the retirement of the Baby Boomers; and 4) policy, namely the retraining of Administrative Law Judges (ALJs) and field office closures.

This project will systematically quantify the relative importance of each factor in explaining recent trends. To do so, it will combine Social Security administrative data with economic and demographic data from the Current Population Survey to simulate a counterfactual incidence rate had the various factors remained constant since 2010. It will then decompose the difference between actual and counterfactual incidence into the portions attributable to falling unemployment, shifting industries, population aging, and policy change. Lastly, it will further decompose the policy-induced drop into the portions attributable to ALJ retraining and field office closures.

Publications

A professional young doctor standing behind his patient stock photo

Why Have Disability Awards Been Declining?

Squared Away Blog by Kimberly Blanton

October 24, 2023
Mallet of judge with scales and blurry person in back

A Major Factor Behind the Drop in Disability Rolls Is “Retraining” of Judges

MarketWatch Blog by Alicia H. Munnell

August 31, 2023
Disability claim form on a clipboard next to a pair of glasses

Why Did Disability Insurance Rolls Drop from 2015 to 2019?

Issue Brief by Siyan Liu and Laura D. Quinby

August 29, 2023
Social Security disability claim form and Social Security card

What Factors Explain the Drop in Disability Insurance Rolls from 2015 to 2019?

Working Paper by Siyan Liu and Laura D. Quinby

May 24, 2023
Sponsor
U.S. Social Security Administration
Fiscal Year Awarded
2023
Project Code
BC23-14

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