Will Women Catch Up to Their Fertility Expectations?

The brief’s key findings are:

• The record low U.S. fertility rate is raising concerns about future population prospects.
• Will it bounce back? Many see hope in the “expectations” data.
• Although today’s women in their 30s have had only 1.3 children, in their early 20s they expected to have more than two. Will they catch up?
• The analysis examined an older cohort of women and used the results to predict how today’s women in their 30s will fare.
• The results suggest that their completed fertility will be 1.96, just a bit below the replacement rate level.
• However, the longer-term prospects are less encouraging:
  • women currently in their 20s expect to have fewer children, so completed fertility may be lower for them, and
  • COVID could depress it further.