What’s Happening to U.S. Mortality Rates?

The brief’s key findings are:

• Mortality rates, which determine life expectancy, are a key factor in cost projections for the Social Security program.
• Mortality rates consistently improve over time, but the pace of progress varies by year, by age, and by socioeconomic status.
• Over the past 40 years, progress has been driven by medical advances, better access to health care, and a decline in smoking, partly offset by rising obesity.
• Looking to the future, mortality improvements will continue to depend on the same drivers, but the net effects could play out differently.
• The key debate is whether the future will mirror the past, with average rates of improvement of about 1 percent, or whether the pace of progress will slow.