Is the Drop in Fertility Temporary or Permanent?

The brief’s key findings are:

• The U.S. fertility rate has fallen sharply since the Great Recession. The question is whether it’s a lingering effect of the downturn or a more permanent drop.
• A review of different measures of fertility suggests a mixed picture.
• But a state-level analysis shows that while fertility typically rises in expansions, in the current expansion it has actually declined more than it did during the recession.
• Four structural changes suggest the decline may be more permanent:
  • a falling birthrate among Hispanics,
  • a rising share of women with college degrees;
  • a falling birthrate among people who do not belong to a religious organization; and
  • a rise in the female-to-male wage ratio.